Source: Science for Environment Policy
Climate change will lead to an increased risk of flooding and huge economic losses if countries do not invest in appropriate adaptation measures, according to a new study. The research estimates the risks posed by flooding to cities around the world and the associated economic losses in 2005 and 2050, and suggests that flood protection must be increased to maintain the same level of risk to coastal cities.
Annual economic losses due to flooding were estimated by the researchers for 136 coastal port cities, including 18 EU cities. Based on 2005 data, they estimated current total losses to be US $6 billion (€4.4 billion) per year. They then forecasted losses for the year 2050, for various future climate change and adaptation scenarios.
Based on socioeconomic change alone, losses due to floodin were estimated to reach US $52 billion (€38 billion) by 2050, but could climb to US $1 trillion (€740 billion) without climate change adaptation measures, when the effects of climate change and subsidence were accounted for in the calculations. If investments in adaptation could maintain coastal protections at their current levels, losses in 2050 could be limited to US $60-63 billion (€44-46 billion) per year.
The study also lists the 20 most vulnerable coastal port cities in terms of current and future flooding losses. The top 20 consists mostly of cities in developing countries, where flood protection is poor. The majority are in Asia, and no European cities appear in this list. However, three cities in the southern US appear in the top four because they are both wealthy, so stand to lose more, and poorly protected. The city at the top of the list is Guangzhou, China.